Inflation Archives - MKTPlace

In April, the UK’s inflation rate more than doubled

Market Place — Mon, 24 May 2021 10:52:12 +0000

We have seen inflation rising in the UK in the past few months. The expectation is that the UK’s inflation will continue.

Market prices are growing at their highest pace since March 2020, when the pandemic began, when they jumped to 1.5 percent from 0.7 percent in March.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the dramatic rise was largely due to a surge in prices from low levels at the onset of the pandemic a year ago.

Higher oil prices have forced up gasoline prices, according to the study.

When oil prices rise, you should expect the price of gas to rise as well. Over time, a $10 raise in oil prices leads to a $0.25 increase in petrol prices. Three forces influence gas and underlying oil prices: supply and demand, commodity brokers, and the valuation of the dollar.

The ONS reports that UK’s inflation increased after lockout controls were lifted and stores reopened on April 12th. Clothing and footwear costs increased in March, after an unexpected drop in February.

Meanwhile, gas and energy rates have risen sharply after a raise in the default tariff ceiling, relative to a cut a year ago.
As lockdown controls relaxed and the economy reopened, PwC economist Hannah Audino predicted that inflation would increase further, enabling customers to “unleash some of their excess savings.”

“New survey data shows that, as the vaccine rollout raises optimism, the share of households planning to invest some of their savings has risen in recent months,” she said.

Economists have expected an increase in UK’s inflation in April, but there are fears that high inflation this year as the global economy recovers from the pandemic would force central banks to lift interest rates.

As the pandemic is affecting most economic sectors, we must wait for the global health situation to stabilize to see how inflation rates will be affected.

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The Key Benefits of using Producer Price Index (PPI)

Market Place — Thu, 25 Mar 2021 08:27:39 +0000

Known as the Wholesale Price Index from the time of its inception till the late 1970s, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index both have extrapolative value and are used to define various economic facets. However, it is important to note that the consumer price index solely emphasizes on consumer spending and on the standard of living of consumers. The producer price index, on the other hand, focuses on the costs of manufacturing goods for a market.

For example, the producer price index negates previous editions of products, such as cars, when it is revealed that newer models are to be introduced or already have been introduced. The producer price index also negates other factors like sales, excise taxes and distribution expenses and instead includes the costs of durable goods which play a key role in production. Here are some of the most important benefits of using a producer price index:

Accurate Measuring of Inflation

People hold a sudden increase or decrease in the cost for consumer goods as a major reason for inflation in an economy. The PPI can measure the inflation’s real growth along with the reduction in total output of an economy, while the consumer price index solely considers factors pertaining to the demand and supply in the economy. The producer price index can be utilized to minimize or eliminate the effect of consumer market inflation on alterations in price and measurements.

Rather, the PPI can be used to accurately gauge the inflation rate by taking into account the price of goods, whether that price increases or decreases and when the goods are sent for distribution.

Predictive Value on Retail Changes

As you know the consumer retail price index indicates the prices of products when they reach the marketplace. And because the PPI gauges the cost of goods before they are released in the market, ready to be consumed, you can say that it can have a projecting value directly concerning their retail prices.

Contract Negotiations

Longer sales agreements involve escalation passages pertaining to the consequences of inflation and how it alters the markets. The PPI can significantly aid in the negotiation of those clauses due to the fact that it can correspond to an independent measurement of price alterations.

The Two Main Uses of the PPI

A Good Economic Indicator

The producer price index can identify various price alterations and changes before the goods enter the marketplace. Therefore, the PPI comes in considerably handy for the government to formulate adequate fiscal and monetary policies.

As a Form of Deflation

Producer price index can be also used to balance other economic time series for price alterations and to interpret those numbers into inflation free currency. For instance, continuous dollar gross domestic product information can be calculated using the information from the PPI.

The product price index cannot be used to calculate the standard of living or any other factor pertaining to the consumer. It takes a couple of days after the PPI is released for the CPI to be revealed. The producer price index uses a standard year in which the CPI is calculated, and each year is compared with the initial year, with the value 100 assigned to it. However, for the product price index, the base year is 1982. Alterations in the producer price index only reflect on percentages, because the minimal changes can be at times ambiguous as the initial number can be greater than 100.

What Can It Do For Investors?

The biggest advantage of the PPI for investors is its power to forecast the consumer price index. According to the theory of producer price index, a majority of price increments that retailers experience will in turn affect the consumer. The consumer price index can provide an affirmation to this situation.

Due to the fact that the consumer price index is a good inflation detector in any economy, most investors would make every attempt to grasp any information pertaining through the producer price index. However, this comes as no surprise to the Federal Reserve and it reviews the reports keenly in order to paint a clearer picture pertaining to the future policies that will be designed to combat inflation.

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EUR/USD Stabilizes at 1.12 Following US Data Deluge

Market Place — Sat, 28 Feb 2015 10:00:22 +0000

The EUR/USD stabilizes to an intraday high of 1.1249 before falling sharply back toward the 1.12 handle. The pair was stabilized around 1.1208, advancing 0.1 percent. The EUR/USD faces initial support at 1.1127. A break below that level would lead to 1.1057. On the upside, resistance is ascending from 1.1324.

In economic data, German inflation showed signs of recovery in February after prices fell for the first time since 2009, a sign Europe’s largest economy was gradually regaining its footing amid rebounding oil prices.

Germany’s consumer price index rose at an annualized rate of 0.1 percent in February after plunging 0.4 percent at the start of the year, preliminary estimates revealed on Friday. However, the country’s harmonized index of consumer spending – the gauge used by the European Central Bank – remained in negative territory, declining 0.1 percent annually. The harmonized index had fallen at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in January.

Friday’s figures offer little hope that the broader euro area, comprising of 19 states including Germany, could avoid falling into a vicious cycle of deflation. Eurozone consumer prices fell 0.6 percent annually in January, the European Commission confirmed earlier this week, edging further away from the ECB’s target of just below 2 percent.

Plunging oil prices have squashed inflationary pressures throughout the advanced industrialized world, including the United States, which posted an annual inflation rate of -0.1 percent in January. That was the first time since October 2009 inflation had declined.

On Friday the Commerce Department said the US economy slowed more than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, stemming from a wider trade deficit and smaller inventory buildup. Gross domestic product expanded 2.2 percent annually in the fourth quarter, down from the “advance” estimate of 2.6 percent. However, the data set pointed to sustained growth in consumer spending, offering hope that the fourth quarter slowdown was only temporary.

Separately, US consumer confidence slipped in February, but remained close to January’s 11-year high. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index eased to 95.4 in February from 98.1 the previous month.

Rounding out Friday’s data releases was a housing report from the National Association of Realtors. Pending home sales, a forward looking indicator of US home sales, increased 1.7 percent in January to the highest level since August 2013, then EUR/USD stabilizes. The NAR expects existing home sales to reach a total of 5.26 million this year, up 6.4 percent from 2014.

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Fed’s Yellen Hints Rate Hike, but Stresses Patience

Market Place — Thu, 26 Feb 2015 07:00:19 +0000

The Federal Reserve could begin normalizing interest rates this year, but won’t rush to do so amid tepid wage growth and tame inflation, central bank Chairwoman Janet Yellen said on Tuesday.

Testifying before Congress, Yellen sought to lay the groundwork for how the Federal Reserve would begin raising interest rates after more than six years. She continued to stress patience in normalizing monetary policy, echoing the Federal Open Market Committee’s January rate statement.

The Federal Reserve “will at some point begin considering an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis,” Yellen told Congress on Tuesday. However, Yelllen was careful to manage expectations, stressing that the Fed’s eventual change in language would not necessarily translate into a shift in policy.

“It is important to emphasize that a modification of the forward guidance should not be read as indicating that the [Federal Reserve] will necessarily increase the target rate in a couple of meetings,” she added. “The modification should be understood as reflecting the [Federal Reserve’s] judgment that conditions have improved to the point where it will soon be the case that a change in the target range could be warranted at any meeting,”

The data-driven Fed has relied on the economic indicators to adjust monetary policy, having closed the books on a record bond-buying program only last October. Yellen said on Tuesday that unemployment was still too high, despite acknowledging broad improvements “on many dimensions.” Unemployment edged up slightly to 5.7 percent in January as workforce participation increased. Employers added 257,000 jobs in January and have added an average of 336,000 jobs per month over the last three months.

While several Fed officials have indicated they would like to have the option to raise interest rates in June, the minutes of the January FOMC meetings revealed growing concerns about tame inflation and a volatile global economy. For its part, the Fed has remained consistent in its messaging since December, when it first started using the word patience to describe interest rate adjustments.

The FOMC’s next meetings will be held in Washington on March 17-18. They will be accompanied by revised GDP, inflation and employment forecasts, as well as the closely followed “dot-plot” chart of interest rate expectations. The Fed’s December forecast showed policymakers anticipated interest rates to rise to 1.125 percent by the end of the year.

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German Business Confidence Rises in February: Ifo

Market Place — Tue, 24 Feb 2015 07:00:52 +0000

German business confidence improved again in February, rising for the fourth consecutive month in the latest sign Europe’s largest economy was recovering from last year’s third quarter slump.

The business climate index, which is derived from a monthly survey of 7,000 companies, rose to 106.8 from 106.7 in February, the Munich-based Ifo Institute reported on Monday. Economists forecast a bigger rise to 107.7.

The assessment of the current business climate improved further in February, rising to 102.5 from 102.0. The current assessment index declined slightly to 111.3 from 112.7.

“Satisfaction with the current business situation decreased somewhat, but companies expressed greater confidence in future business developments,” said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn in a press release. “The German economy is proving robust in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.”

Business conditions improved somewhat in manufacturing, with the six-month business outlook reaching its highest level since August 2014. Business conditions in wholesaling and construction deteriorated slightly this month, Ifo data showed.

The figures provided added assurance that Europe’s largest economy was regaining momentum despite geopolitical uncertainties, euro area deflation and the growing threat of a Greek default.

Germany’s gross domestic product rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, growing 0.7 percent. That was more than double the rate of forecasts and well above the Q3 rate of just 0.1 percent. Year-on-year, Germany’s economy grew 1.6 percent. The Federal Statistics Office will release updated fourth quarter GDP figures on Tuesday.

According to analysts, Germany is on pace for around 0.4 percent quarterly growth in the first three months of 2015, having benefited from cheap oil and a weaker euro. However, the German economy is expected to remain subdued this year, according to a January forecast by the International Monetary Fund. The international lending institution said it expects Germany to grow only 1.3 percent in all of 2015, followed by a 1.5 percent growth pace next year. By comparison, euro area growth will average only 1.2 percent this year and 1.4 percent next year.

Eurozone GDP disappointed in the fourth quarter, growing only 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. France expanded only 0.1 percent, while Italy stagnated and Greece slipped back into contraction.

The euro was back on its heels Monday, touching an intraday low of 1.1294 US. It would subsequently consolidate at 1.1323 US, declining 0.5 percent.

The euro also declined against the British pound, falling 0.65 percent to 0.7348 GBP.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Market Place — Mon, 23 Feb 2015 09:03:52 +0000

The euro was trading cautiously on Monday, following a week of uncertainty that ended with Greece securing a short-term loan extension in exchange for further oversight from its creditors and other reforms that squashed Athens’ “anti-austerity” pledge. The attention this week shifts back to the economic data, although the threat of an eventual Greek exit from the Eurozone remains in the background.

The EUR/USD was trading at 1.1368 in the early Asian session, down 0.13 percent. The pair faces initial support at 1.1294 and resistance at 1.1445. The euro advanced slightly against its US counterpart last week, but ended on a sour note following the details of the Greek loan extension. The pair briefly fell below 1.13 on Friday before recovering.

Several batches of high profile data are on the docket this week, headlined by Germany. On Monday the IFO Institute will release the business climate index, a closely followed indicator for economic development in Germany. The business climate index is forecast to rise to 107.7 from 106.7, adding further evidence the German economy was regaining momentum following a midyear slump.

On Tuesday the Federal Statistics Office is expected to confirm Germany’s Q4 GDP growth at 0.7 percent, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Year-on-year, this translates into an annualized gain of 1.6 percent. Fourth quarter growth more than doubled forecast and was a significant improvement over the third quarter’s 0.1 percent uptick.

Separately, Eurostat will post final Eurozone CPI figures for January. Eurozone consumer prices plunged 0.6 percent annually in January, the sharpest decline since July 2009, Eurostat reported last month in a preliminary estimate.

On Thursday Germany will publish official employment figures for February. The number of workers unemployed is forecast to drop by another 10,000 in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 6.5 percent.

Separately, Eurostat will release several economic indicators on Thursday, including business confidence, industrial confidence and economic sentiment.

Germany and other Eurozone member states will close out the week with preliminary estimates of February CPI. Germany’s harmonized index of consumer prices declined 0.5 percent in January, the first time in more than five years inflation turned negative for Europe’s largest economy.

Eurozone inflation will probably remain negative in the first half of the year before gradually recovering later on, aggravating concerns about the currency bloc’s nascent recovery. Persistently weak inflation also raises concerns about the ECB’s €1 trillion bond buying program, which has designed to shore up consumer prices and promote economic growth.

The ECB will hold its next monetary policy meetings in early March.

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Bank of England Votes Unanimously to Keeping Interest Rates Low

Market Place — Thu, 19 Feb 2015 14:00:12 +0000

Lawmakers at the Bank of England voted unanimously to keep interest rates at a record low at this month’s policy meetings, although signs of division re-emerged about the outlook on monetary policy.

The BOE voted 9-0 in favour of keeping interest rates at a record-low of 0.5 percent and the size of the asset purchase facility at £375 billion, the minutes of the February 4-5 Committee policy meetings revealed today.

“In the light of that aim, and the Committee’s latest set of economic projections, all Committee members agreed that it was appropriate to leave the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting,” the minutes revealed. “Given the outlook for inflation beyond the short term, there could well be a case for an increase in Bank Rate later this year.”

Although policymakers did not rule out a rate increase this year, one member did indicate that the Bank’s next move could be to loosen monetary policy rather than tighten it. Those sentiments were reflected last week after the BOE raised the possibility of cutting interest rates in light of plunging inflation.

BOE Governor Mark Carney expects inflation to fall below zero in the short term before rebounding in the next two years. Britain’s annual inflation rate fell to 0.3 percent in January, the lowest level since record keeping began in 1989, stemming from lower gasoline and food prices. This is a welcome sign for cash-strapped consumers, who have struggled with stubbornly low earnings growth for much of the recovery.

Signs of wage growth have reappeared in recent months. Average earnings including bonus rose 2.1 percent annually in the three months through December, outstripping inflation by the widest margin since 2008, the Office for National Statistics reported today. Economists forecast an increase of 1.7 percent after wage growth averaged 1.8 percent in the three months through November.

Excluding bonuses, average earnings rose 1.7 percent annually between October and December, slightly below November’s 1.7 percent pace.

The UK labour market continued to improve at the end of last year, with the unemployment rate falling from 5.8 percent to 5.7 percent in the three months through December. Jobless benefits, which are a narrower measure of unemployment, declined by 38,600 to 823,000 in January, compared to a median estimate calling for a 25,000 drop.

The BOE expects unemployment to fall further over the forecast period, as the labour market gradually returns to full capacity.

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GBP/USD Edges Lower amid Plunging UK Inflation

Market Place — Wed, 18 Feb 2015 12:00:22 +0000

The British pound edged lower against the US dollar on Tuesday, as UK inflation fell to its lowest level since 1989, although core inflation reassured investors Britain was not facing any systemic price collapse.

The GBP/USD tumbled 0.25 percent to 1.5321. The pair is testing initial support at 1.5320. A break below this level exposes 1.5277, followed by 1.5216. On the upside, initial resistance is likely found at 1.5424, followed by 1.5485 and 1.5528.

In economic data, UK consumer prices declined more than forecast in January, stemming from cheaper energy and food costs. Monthly CPI plunged 0.9 percent, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday. In annual terms, UK inflation was 0.3 percent in January, the lowest level since record keeping began in 1989.

Core inflation, which strips away volatile goods such as food and energy, advanced at an annual rate of 1.4 percent, the highest level in three months and reassuring investors Britain was not succumbing to Japan-style deflation. The steady rise in core inflation also removed doubts the Bank of England would delay raising interest rates this year. The latest fall in consumer prices is in line with the BOE’s forecast. According to central bank Governor Mark Carney, consumer prices will probably fall below zero before making their long climb back to target levels in the next two years.

In US data, homebuilder confidence weakened unexpectedly in February, as heavy snowfall throughout much of the United States weighed on home sales and buyer traffic. The National Association of Home Builders’ housing market index declined two points to 55 in February, compared with forecasts calling for a one point increase. A reading above 50 means home builders are generally optimistic about housing market conditions.

Despite the downtick, housing market conditions are likely to improve in the coming months, as more plentiful jobs and declining mortgage rates boost home sales. The US economy added 257,000 nonfarm payrolls in January, marking the 12^th consecutive month employers added more than 200,000 jobs.

“For the past eight months, confidence levels have held in the mid- to upper 50s range, which is consistent with a modest, ongoing recovery,” said NAHB chief economist David Crowe. “Solid job growth, affordable home prices and historically low mortgage rates should help unleash growing pent-up demand and keep the housing market moving forward in the year ahead.”

The Department of Commerce will report on US housing starts and building permits on Wednesday.

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Housing Data, FOMC Minutes to Drive US Dollar This Week

Market Place — Tue, 17 Feb 2015 07:00:45 +0000

The US dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies on Monday, as American traders paused to observe President’s Day. The greenback could face significant action this week, led by a slew of housing data and the minutes of the January 27-8 FOMC policy meetings.

The US dollar index, a weighted average of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, dipped 0.07 percent to 94.14. The dollar index tumbled sharply last Thursday following disappointing US retail sales.

On the economic calendar, housing data take centre stage this week. On Tuesday the National Association of Home Builders will release the monthly housing market index, a gauge of homebuilder confidence. The housing market index is expected to rise one point to 58 in February, nearing September’s nine-year high of 59. A reading above 50 is a general sign of optimism about housing market conditions, whereas a reading below that level denotes pessimism.

On Wednesday the Department of Commerce will report on housing starts and building permits, key indicators of overall housing activity. Housing starts are forecast to decline 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.07 million in January. Housing starts had rebounded sharply in December, rounding out the strongest year since 2007. Building permits are forecast to rise 2.7 percent in February, according to a median estimate of economists.

In addition to housing figures, the US government will release industrial production and producer inflation data on Wednesday.

Industrial production is forecast to rebound 0.3 percent in January after slipping 0.1 percent in December. The capacity utilization rate is forecast to rise to 79.9 percent from 79.7 percent.

The producer price index, which gauges inflation in primary markets, is forecast to fall 0.4 percent in January following a 0.3 percent drop the previous month. Excluding food and energy, the PPI is forecast to rise 0.1 percent.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will also release the minutes of its January Federal Open Market Committee policy meetings. The Federal Reserve announced last month it would be patient in starting to raise interest rates, a sign policymakers would keep monetary policy highly accommodative for longer than initially expected.

“Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy,” read the central bank’s January 28 statement.

The Fed added, “When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.”

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Euro rallies as technical trading outweighs German deflation

Market Place — Fri, 30 Jan 2015 07:00:38 +0000

The EUR/USD rallied on Thursday, as technical trading sent the pair higher amid mixed economic data from Germany.

The EUR/USD regained 1.13 and climbed to an intraday high of 1.1367. It would later consolidate at 1.1320 in the North American session, advancing 0.4 percent. Initial support is likely found at 1.1253 and resistance at 1.13355. The EUR/USD could sustain a larger rebound above the initial resistance test as the RSI climbs off oversold levels.

Technical trading supported the euro despite plunging German inflation, which highlighted even more so the downside risks facing the Eurozone economy. Germany’s consumer price index of goods and services declined more than forecast in January, plunging 0.3 percent annually.

Germany’s harmonized CPI rate, which calculates inflation using a method consistent throughout the European Union, declined 0.5 percent annually, the biggest drop in more than five years.

The European Central Bank last week joined a growing list of central banks that have eased monetary policy this month to account for deflationary risk. The ECB introduced its long-awaited quantitative easing program last Thursday, announcing it would begin buying government bonds worth €60 billion per month. The QE program, which is expected to last until at least September 2016, could inject up to €1 trillion into the Eurozone economy.

The EUR/USD plummeted to fresh 12-year lows following the news and risks further downside action as the markets brace for weaker inflation figures and diverging central bank policies between the ECB and United States Federal Reserve.

In a separate report today Germany said its unemployment rate fell in January to its lowest level in more than two decades, a sign Europe’s largest economy was gradually improving despite regional imbalances. Germany’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in January, down from 6.6 percent a month earlier. That was the lowest level since the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.

An improving labour market and cheaper gas prices are lifting German consumer sentiment, according to GfK. The market research firm’s monthly consumer confidence index reached 9.3 in February, a 13-year high.

“Consumers are expecting the German economy to continue developing positively over the coming months,” GfK reported on Wednesday in a press release.

It added, “Falling energy prices will play a major role in this respect. Low energy prices combined with a considerable depreciation in the euro are acting as an economic stimulus and should boost not only exports, but also companies’ willingness to invest.”

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