The euro posted modest gains against the US dollar on Wednesday, although upside was limited after international investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered the common currency’s near-term forecast.

The EUR/USD advanced 0.15 percent to 1.1360, stopping well short of the 1.14 level. The pair faces near-term support at 1.1301 and resistance at 1.1372. The EUR/USD has plunged more than 17 percent year-on-year. The pair was trading closer to 1.40 last spring.

The euro was also trading near seven-year lows against the British pound. The EUR/GBP fell 0.11 percent to 0.7331, rebounding from an intraday low to 0.7314.

The common currency has been mired in economic and political turmoil stemming from plunging inflation, violence in Ukraine and a deepening Greek crisis.

As Athens struggles to make whole on its campaign promise that Greeks could have the euro without the “cruel” austerity tied to bailout reforms, the newly elected Syriza party could face a political backlash. While the European Commission accepted the validity of Greece’s recently proposed reforms, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund publicly disclosed their displeasure with the lack of details in the plans.

“The commitments outlined by the authorities differ from existing program commitments in a number of areas,” ECB President Mario Draghi said in a letter to Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem.

Greece slipped back into contraction in the fourth quarter, as the country’s deteriorating climate has added another layer of complication to ongoing bailout talks.

The ongoing Greek bailout crisis likely factored into Goldman Sachs’ latest forecast for the euro. Goldman now sees the common currency at 1.12-1.13 US over the next three months, down from a previous forecast of 1.14. The euro is expected to fall to 1.10 in the next six months, down from a previous forecast of 1.11. The euro will then plunge to 1.08 in a year’s time.

A plunging euro boosted Germany in the fourth quarter, as the bedrock of the Eurozone economy expanded more than twice the rate of forecast. Germany’s GDP expanded 0.7 percent in the final three months of 2014, up from 0.1 percent the previous month. Year-on-year, this translated into an annualized gain of 1.6 percent. Euro area growth averaged 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, official data revealed earlier this month.

Eurozone consumer prices declined at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in January. Deflation was steepest in Greece, while almost all Eurozone countries experienced negative rates. The European Commission next week is expected to report an even steeper fall for February.

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The financial markets were on edge on Tuesday, as the pressure mounted on Eurozone finance ministers to reach an agreement over Greece’s loan program.

Greek and Eurozone finance ministers resumed talks in Brussels on Tuesday, where a war of words between Greece and Germany escalated, stoking concerns both sides were still far apart on a settlement. The European Union has given Greece until the end of the week to extend its current bailout program or risk losing financial aid. Athens has vowed not to extend the current bailout program and is seeking a six-month bridging loan to finance essential government activities. Greece’s €240 billion bailout program is due to expire on February 28.
Greece’s newly elected Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Tuesday his government would give in to “blackmail” and would instead begin to enact new laws to reverse the bailout conditions. Tsipras told his Syriza party that the government would not compromise with Greece’s troika of lenders.

“We are not in a hurry and we will not compromise,” Tsipras told his far-left party’s lawmakers.

He added, “We are working hard for an honest and mutually beneficial deal, a deal without austerity, without the bailout which has destroyed Greece in recent years, a deal without the toxic presence of the troika.”

German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble reiterated his take-it-or-leave-it message, putting the pressure squarely on Athens to extend the troika’s loan program.

“The question still remains if Greece wants a program at all or not,” Schaeuble told reporters in Brussels after a second day of meetings.

Dutch finance minister and Eurogroup president Joroen Dijsselbloem echoed Shaeuble’s words and insisted that Athens seek an extension.

“It’s really up to the Greeks. We cannot make them or ask them,” he stated.

While the prospects of an agreement remain dim, the European Central Bank is not expected to cut off funding to cash-strapped Greek banks this week, according to sources. The ECB insists that Greece will remain part of the euro.

The euro rebounded on Tuesday, as investors disregarded the latest collapse in Greece bailout talks after German investor sentiment reached a 12-month high in February. ZEW’s economic sentiment index climbed 4.6 points to 53.0, as the current situation sub-index more than doubled to 45.5.

The EUR/USD climbed to an intraday high of 1.1445 on Tuesday. It would subsequently consolidate at 1.1394, advancing 0.45 percent.

The euro also rebounded against the British pound, as the EUR/GBP rose 0.54 percent to 0.7426.

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The role of central banks in deciding exchange rate levels cannot be overestimated. If you want to trade currencies you need to understand what a central bank is, and how it controls exchange rates.

The actions of these institutions drives the day to-day fluctuations in the forex markets, but who are they, and how do they work? Here’s  a look at the 6 most important central banks in the world, and the way they make their decisions.

1. The Federal Reserve
This is the big one. The Federal Reserve is the most talked about, and by far the most important, central bank on the planet. The Dollar is the currency of world trade.

How does it work? The seven governors, appointed by the president and confirmed by the senate, serve 14-year terms. The meet once every six weeks with 5 of the 12 presidents of the district reserve banks to form the Federal Open Market Committee. This committee decides interest rates, and more dramatic actions by the central bank.

What does it want? The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is full employment and stable prices, meaning it wants to keep both inflation and unemployment low. This goal, which is wider than that of many other central banks, is what allowed actions like quantitative easing to take place based on unemployment figures rather than inflation numbers.

2. The European Central Bank
The guardian of the European common currency, the ECB was set up by a treaty between the member states of the Eurozone, which now number 19.

How does it work?  The decision making body of the bank is made up of the 19 heads of regional central banks and six executive board members nominated by the governments of the bloc in concord with each other. The bank’s governing council meets twice per month in Frankfurt, and announces its monetary policy decisions at the first of these.

What does it want? Enshrined in treaty, the objective of the ECB is clear: maintain price stability in the Eurozone. This is the reason that the ECB was not able to introduce QE-style program to allay the effects of unemployment. The bank was only allowed to interfere on the grounds of dangerous deflation.

3. The Bank of Japan
The keeper of the Yen since the nineteenth century Meiji Restoration, the BoJ is the monetary policy decision maker of Japan.

How does it work? The committee of the bank of Japan is made up of nine members, including a governor and two deputy governors. The committee meets once or twice per month in order to decide the country’s monetary policy.

What does it want? The bank of Japan doesn’t have the kind of clearly defined goals that the Fed or ECB have, making it a little less predictable. It’s mandate gives it reign to implement monetary policy and ensure the soundness of the financial system while maintaining price stability, though it doesn’t put any of these goals on a pedestal above the others.

4. The Bank of England
By far the oldest bank on this list, and the one that the rest have based themselves off of, the Bank of England has been around for more than three hundred years.

How does it work? Tricky because of its reliance on British traditional politics for guidance, the Bank of England’s monetary policy is decided by a committee which is made up of nine members and meets once every month.

What does it want? Price stability is currently the main goal of the BoE, but that can change as it’s the government that chooses the inflation target, and the overall objective can be amended by act of parliament. If the bank misses that target by a wide margin it has to explain its mistakes to the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

5. The Swiss National Bank
Established in 1907, the Swiss National Bank floats 45% of its shares on the stock market, and is the only central bank on this list that actually makes a profit.

How does it work? The SNB is supposed to conduct it monetary policy decisions as if it were an independent central bank. The governing board of the SNB has three members who are responsible for decisions on monetary policy. It decides interest rates quarterly.

What does it want? Price stability, including a definition thereof, is the central goal of the Swiss National Bank, though it has a secondary goal of accounting for economic developments in order to foster an atmosphere that supports economic growth.

6. The People’s Bank of China
Unusually opaque, the People’s Bank of China acts as the central bank for the yuan. It was the only bank in the communist country for decades, but the liberalization of the banking system left the PBC squarely with the duties of a central bank.

How does it work? China’s monetary policy is decided by  a committee which includes the governor and two deputy-governors of the PBC, along with representatives from government, regulators and an academic. The committee meets quarterly.

What does it want? The goals of the monetary policy committee are set to be prescribed by the State Council, meaning they’re unusually amendable.

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The EUR/USD rallied on Thursday, as technical trading sent the pair higher amid mixed economic data from Germany.

The EUR/USD regained 1.13 and climbed to an intraday high of 1.1367. It would later consolidate at 1.1320 in the North American session, advancing 0.4 percent. Initial support is likely found at 1.1253 and resistance at 1.13355. The EUR/USD could sustain a larger rebound above the initial resistance test as the RSI climbs off oversold levels.

Technical trading supported the euro despite plunging German inflation, which highlighted even more so the downside risks facing the Eurozone economy. Germany’s consumer price index of goods and services declined more than forecast in January, plunging 0.3 percent annually.

Germany’s harmonized CPI rate, which calculates inflation using a method consistent throughout the European Union, declined 0.5 percent annually, the biggest drop in more than five years.

The European Central Bank last week joined a growing list of central banks that have eased monetary policy this month to account for deflationary risk. The ECB introduced its long-awaited quantitative easing program last Thursday, announcing it would begin buying government bonds worth €60 billion per month. The QE program, which is expected to last until at least September 2016, could inject up to €1 trillion into the Eurozone economy.

The EUR/USD plummeted to fresh 12-year lows following the news and risks further downside action as the markets brace for weaker inflation figures and diverging central bank policies between the ECB and United States Federal Reserve.

In a separate report today Germany said its unemployment rate fell in January to its lowest level in more than two decades, a sign Europe’s largest economy was gradually improving despite regional imbalances. Germany’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in January, down from 6.6 percent a month earlier. That was the lowest level since the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.

An improving labour market and cheaper gas prices are lifting German consumer sentiment, according to GfK. The market research firm’s monthly consumer confidence index reached 9.3 in February, a 13-year high.

“Consumers are expecting the German economy to continue developing positively over the coming months,” GfK reported on Wednesday in a press release.

It added, “Falling energy prices will play a major role in this respect. Low energy prices combined with a considerable depreciation in the euro are acting as an economic stimulus and should boost not only exports, but also companies’ willingness to invest.”

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