imf Archives - MKTPlace https://mktplace.org/tag/imf/ all about trading, Fintech, Business, AI & technology in one place Thu, 25 Mar 2021 11:59:55 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.2 https://mktplace.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/favicon.png imf Archives - MKTPlace https://mktplace.org/tag/imf/ 32 32 EUR/USD Little Changed as Goldman Sachs Lowers Forecast https://mktplace.org/eurusd-little-changed-as-goldman-sachs-lowers-forecast/ https://mktplace.org/eurusd-little-changed-as-goldman-sachs-lowers-forecast/#respond Thu, 26 Feb 2015 16:03:50 +0000 http://www.tradersdna.com/?p=33113

The euro posted modest gains against the US dollar on Wednesday, although upside was limited after international investment bank Goldman Sachs lowered the common currency’s near-term forecast.

The EUR/USD advanced 0.15 percent to 1.1360, stopping well short of the 1.14 level. The pair faces near-term support at 1.1301 and resistance at 1.1372. The EUR/USD has plunged more than 17 percent year-on-year. The pair was trading closer to 1.40 last spring.

The euro was also trading near seven-year lows against the British pound. The EUR/GBP fell 0.11 percent to 0.7331, rebounding from an intraday low to 0.7314.

The common currency has been mired in economic and political turmoil stemming from plunging inflation, violence in Ukraine and a deepening Greek crisis.

As Athens struggles to make whole on its campaign promise that Greeks could have the euro without the “cruel” austerity tied to bailout reforms, the newly elected Syriza party could face a political backlash. While the European Commission accepted the validity of Greece’s recently proposed reforms, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund publicly disclosed their displeasure with the lack of details in the plans.

“The commitments outlined by the authorities differ from existing program commitments in a number of areas,” ECB President Mario Draghi said in a letter to Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem.

Greece slipped back into contraction in the fourth quarter, as the country’s deteriorating climate has added another layer of complication to ongoing bailout talks.

The ongoing Greek bailout crisis likely factored into Goldman Sachs’ latest forecast for the euro. Goldman now sees the common currency at 1.12-1.13 US over the next three months, down from a previous forecast of 1.14. The euro is expected to fall to 1.10 in the next six months, down from a previous forecast of 1.11. The euro will then plunge to 1.08 in a year’s time.

A plunging euro boosted Germany in the fourth quarter, as the bedrock of the Eurozone economy expanded more than twice the rate of forecast. Germany’s GDP expanded 0.7 percent in the final three months of 2014, up from 0.1 percent the previous month. Year-on-year, this translated into an annualized gain of 1.6 percent. Euro area growth averaged 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, official data revealed earlier this month.

Eurozone consumer prices declined at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in January. Deflation was steepest in Greece, while almost all Eurozone countries experienced negative rates. The European Commission next week is expected to report an even steeper fall for February.

]]> https://mktplace.org/eurusd-little-changed-as-goldman-sachs-lowers-forecast/feed/ 0 German Business Confidence Rises in February: Ifo https://mktplace.org/german-business-confidence-rises-in-february-ifo/ https://mktplace.org/german-business-confidence-rises-in-february-ifo/#respond Tue, 24 Feb 2015 07:00:52 +0000 http://www.tradersdna.com/?p=33080

 

 

German business confidence improved again in February, rising for the fourth consecutive month in the latest sign Europe’s largest economy was recovering from last year’s third quarter slump.

The business climate index, which is derived from a monthly survey of 7,000 companies, rose to 106.8 from 106.7 in February, the Munich-based Ifo Institute reported on Monday. Economists forecast a bigger rise to 107.7.

The assessment of the current business climate improved further in February, rising to 102.5 from 102.0. The current assessment index declined slightly to 111.3 from 112.7.

“Satisfaction with the current business situation decreased somewhat, but companies expressed greater confidence in future business developments,” said Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn in a press release. “The German economy is proving robust in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.”

Business conditions improved somewhat in manufacturing, with the six-month business outlook reaching its highest level since August 2014. Business conditions in wholesaling and construction deteriorated slightly this month, Ifo data showed.

The figures provided added assurance that Europe’s largest economy was regaining momentum despite geopolitical uncertainties, euro area deflation and the growing threat of a Greek default.

Germany’s gross domestic product rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, growing 0.7 percent. That was more than double the rate of forecasts and well above the Q3 rate of just 0.1 percent. Year-on-year, Germany’s economy grew 1.6 percent. The Federal Statistics Office will release updated fourth quarter GDP figures on Tuesday.

According to analysts, Germany is on pace for around 0.4 percent quarterly growth in the first three months of 2015, having benefited from cheap oil and a weaker euro. However, the German economy is expected to remain subdued this year, according to a January forecast by the International Monetary Fund. The international lending institution said it expects Germany to grow only 1.3 percent in all of 2015, followed by a 1.5 percent growth pace next year. By comparison, euro area growth will average only 1.2 percent this year and 1.4 percent next year.

Eurozone GDP disappointed in the fourth quarter, growing only 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter. France expanded only 0.1 percent, while Italy stagnated and Greece slipped back into contraction.

The euro was back on its heels Monday, touching an intraday low of 1.1294 US. It would subsequently consolidate at 1.1323 US, declining 0.5 percent.

The euro also declined against the British pound, falling 0.65 percent to 0.7348 GBP.

]]> https://mktplace.org/german-business-confidence-rises-in-february-ifo/feed/ 0 A Trader’s Guide to The IMF https://mktplace.org/traders-guide-imf/ https://mktplace.org/traders-guide-imf/#respond Sat, 07 Feb 2015 07:00:10 +0000 http://www.tradersdna.com/?p=32952

The International Monetary Fund is one of the most important market movers out there. Its actions have caused turmoil on the markets in recent years, and since its inception. Few traders understand the importance of the institution, however, and fewer still are able to predict its effects on the world markets.
This guide takes a look at the IMF from the basics of what it is and how it works to more complicated descriptions of how it pushes world markets and why traders should be keeping an eye on it.

What is the IMF?
The IMF was set up by the Bretton Woods agreement as part of the system of weights and governance that kept semi-fixed exchange rates in place across the world. It’s goal was then, and is still, international monetary cooperation.

The institution has several principles that are pillars in its vision of a globalized free trade system. It wants to minimize trade imbalances and create currencies that float freely with maximum stability, an approach designed to maximize trade between all countries. It is one of the three most important multinational economic institutions, alongside the World Bank and the World Trade Organization.

How does it work?
The IMF is an organization of 188 countries, each giving its share of funds to the organization. Operating like a company, the funds also determine the amount of votes each country has. That means that the United States, which has the most votes, has close to three times the voting power of the second biggest contributor Japan.

Policy is decided by the Board of Governors, a body made up of two representatives from each country, a governor and an alternate. These are usually the highest profile financial controllers from the respective countries. For example, the United Kingdom’s representative is the Chancellor George Osborne. His alternate is the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney.

The Board of Governors delegates day to day operations to the Executive Board of 24 members. 8 of these members: the USA, Japan, Germany, France, the UK, China, Russia and Saudi Arabia get their own representative. The other 16 spots represent constituencies of between 4 and 22 countries each.

The IMF board elects a Managing director, currently Christine Lagarde.

Why does it affect my investment?
There’s three basic ways that the IMF works on the financial markets, the first is through information and analysis releases, the second through its existence as a lender of last resort, and the third in its actual dealings with countries. We’ll deal with each of these issues separately here, though they’re often intertwined.

Information and analysis

The International Monetary Fund is constantly releasing information about the basic state of the world economy, from simple data collection to forward looking analyses of global and regional trends. This is some of the most highly regarded economic data and analysis on the planet, and it has been known to move markets.

Example of important, market-moving reports include the organization’s World Economic Outlook, anything it releases on a country in an IMF program, and its case studies on economic performance and reforms.

Lender of last resort

The IMF acts as a lender of last resort for the lenders of last resort. This is a passive effect of the organization. Its impact is priced into the market, and it’s generally clear that countries have options other than outright default when they run into financial trouble.

This may not effect the market directly, but it has a logically compressing impact on bond yields around the world. Recent action in Europe has strengthened this part of the IMF’s reputation. This effect is implicit, meaning it will only move markets if it is questioned, or confidence in its ability to achieve this end falls.

IMF loans

When a country hits rock bottom and it can no longer afford the interest rates the markets levy, it heads to the IMF for a dig-out. Conditions are usually attached to these loans, and are sometimes controversial. As can be seen from several events in recent years, markets stand up and react when the IMF steps in.

This has been most apparent in Europe in recent years. IMF intervention in countries like Greece and Ireland forced changes in government policy, and completely revolutionized the way European bonds were treated by the world market.

This is the most dramatic way in which the IMF has an effect on markets, but it is not as uncommon as might be believed. Loans from the IMF have increased in recent decades, and dozens of countries are currently in some kind of IMF program.

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