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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

Market Place — Mon, 23 Feb 2015 09:03:52 +0000

The euro was trading cautiously on Monday, following a week of uncertainty that ended with Greece securing a short-term loan extension in exchange for further oversight from its creditors and other reforms that squashed Athens’ “anti-austerity” pledge. The attention this week shifts back to the economic data, although the threat of an eventual Greek exit from the Eurozone remains in the background.

The EUR/USD was trading at 1.1368 in the early Asian session, down 0.13 percent. The pair faces initial support at 1.1294 and resistance at 1.1445. The euro advanced slightly against its US counterpart last week, but ended on a sour note following the details of the Greek loan extension. The pair briefly fell below 1.13 on Friday before recovering.

Several batches of high profile data are on the docket this week, headlined by Germany. On Monday the IFO Institute will release the business climate index, a closely followed indicator for economic development in Germany. The business climate index is forecast to rise to 107.7 from 106.7, adding further evidence the German economy was regaining momentum following a midyear slump.

On Tuesday the Federal Statistics Office is expected to confirm Germany’s Q4 GDP growth at 0.7 percent, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Year-on-year, this translates into an annualized gain of 1.6 percent. Fourth quarter growth more than doubled forecast and was a significant improvement over the third quarter’s 0.1 percent uptick.

Separately, Eurostat will post final Eurozone CPI figures for January. Eurozone consumer prices plunged 0.6 percent annually in January, the sharpest decline since July 2009, Eurostat reported last month in a preliminary estimate.

On Thursday Germany will publish official employment figures for February. The number of workers unemployed is forecast to drop by another 10,000 in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 6.5 percent.

Separately, Eurostat will release several economic indicators on Thursday, including business confidence, industrial confidence and economic sentiment.

Germany and other Eurozone member states will close out the week with preliminary estimates of February CPI. Germany’s harmonized index of consumer prices declined 0.5 percent in January, the first time in more than five years inflation turned negative for Europe’s largest economy.

Eurozone inflation will probably remain negative in the first half of the year before gradually recovering later on, aggravating concerns about the currency bloc’s nascent recovery. Persistently weak inflation also raises concerns about the ECB’s €1 trillion bond buying program, which has designed to shore up consumer prices and promote economic growth.

The ECB will hold its next monetary policy meetings in early March.

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Canadian Dollar Retreats on Declining Energy Prices

Market Place — Fri, 20 Feb 2015 07:31:13 +0000

The Canadian dollar declined against its US counterpart on Wednesday, as tumbling energy prices outweighed stronger than forecast growth in Canadian wholesale sales.

The loonie tumbled to 0.8036 US after climbing to a daily high of 0.8089 US on Tuesday. The USDCAD exchange rate advanced 0.6 percent to 1.2445 and is testing initial resistance at 1.2449. On the downside, initial support is likely found at 1.2329.

In economic data, Canadian wholesale trade rebounded sharply in December, led by widespread gains in all sectors. Wholesale sales rose 2.5 percent to $55.4 billion in December, surpassing forecasts calling for a 0.3 percent gain. Wholesale sales had declined 0.3 percent in November.

Six of seven subsectors representing 80 percent of wholesale trade increased in December, led by motor vehicles and parts as well as miscellaneous goods. The motor vehicle industry posted its third consecutive monthly increase, official data showed.

Solid wholesale trade figures weren’t enough to lift the commodity-sensitive loonie after energy prices declined on Wednesday. US crude declined 1.27 percent to $52.85 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude dipped 1.55 percent to $61.56 a barrel.

Canada is home to the world’s third-largest known oil reserves and relies heavily on energy exports to fuel its domestic economy. The energy sector accounts for about one-third of Canada’s total export sales. Oil’s seven-month plunge is weighing heavily on the Canadian economy. Alberta, which is home to the country’s oil and gas industry, is expected to sink into a mild recession this year, according to the latest forecast by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC).

The US dollar was broadly supported on Wednesday, as investors disregarded weaker than forecast housing and industrial production data following news that Greece officially submitted a loan request to its EU paymasters.

The US dollar index, which measures the dollar’s performance against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.3 percent to 94.33.

US housing starts declined 2 percent in January, but remained above the important one-million mark for the fifth month running. Single-family starts eased off six-and-a-half year highs, slipping 6.7 percent to 678,000.

Building permits, a gauge of residential construction intentions, declined 0.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.05 million, official data showed.

Separately, US industrial production rose less than forecast in January, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System confirmed today. Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in January after declining 0.3 percent the month before. The capacity utilization rate, which measures how fully companies are using their resources, declined 0.3 percentage points to 79.4 percent.

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Housing Data, FOMC Minutes to Drive US Dollar This Week

Market Place — Tue, 17 Feb 2015 07:00:45 +0000

The US dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies on Monday, as American traders paused to observe President’s Day. The greenback could face significant action this week, led by a slew of housing data and the minutes of the January 27-8 FOMC policy meetings.

The US dollar index, a weighted average of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, dipped 0.07 percent to 94.14. The dollar index tumbled sharply last Thursday following disappointing US retail sales.

On the economic calendar, housing data take centre stage this week. On Tuesday the National Association of Home Builders will release the monthly housing market index, a gauge of homebuilder confidence. The housing market index is expected to rise one point to 58 in February, nearing September’s nine-year high of 59. A reading above 50 is a general sign of optimism about housing market conditions, whereas a reading below that level denotes pessimism.

On Wednesday the Department of Commerce will report on housing starts and building permits, key indicators of overall housing activity. Housing starts are forecast to decline 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.07 million in January. Housing starts had rebounded sharply in December, rounding out the strongest year since 2007. Building permits are forecast to rise 2.7 percent in February, according to a median estimate of economists.

In addition to housing figures, the US government will release industrial production and producer inflation data on Wednesday.

Industrial production is forecast to rebound 0.3 percent in January after slipping 0.1 percent in December. The capacity utilization rate is forecast to rise to 79.9 percent from 79.7 percent.

The producer price index, which gauges inflation in primary markets, is forecast to fall 0.4 percent in January following a 0.3 percent drop the previous month. Excluding food and energy, the PPI is forecast to rise 0.1 percent.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will also release the minutes of its January Federal Open Market Committee policy meetings. The Federal Reserve announced last month it would be patient in starting to raise interest rates, a sign policymakers would keep monetary policy highly accommodative for longer than initially expected.

“Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy,” read the central bank’s January 28 statement.

The Fed added, “When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.”

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EUR/USD Edges Higher Amid Greek Bailout Talks, Disappointing US Data

Market Place — Sat, 14 Feb 2015 07:00:10 +0000

The EUR/USD advanced for a second consecutive day on Friday as Greece resumed talks with its Troika of creditors, while the US dollar continued to retreat following disappointing retail sales data.

The EUR/USD climbed 0.12 percent to 1.1413, easing off an earlier high of 1.1445. The pair is pacing toward a weekly gain of 0.75 percent. Near-term support is likely found at 1.1325. On the upside, initial resistance is likely found at 1.1461. A break above this level would expose 1.15.

Talks between Greece and its international creditors resumed on Friday in an effort to keep the country financed after February 28, the deadline for the current bailout program. Eurozone finance ministers will hold a second round of talks on Monday. Negotiations broke down earlier this week after Greece and its Eurozone counterparts failed to establish common ground on a new agreement.

Meanwhile, a fresh wave of violence broke out in eastern Ukraine after European leaders agreed to a peace deal in Minsk earlier this week, as rebel forces and Ukrainian troops fought for control over the strategic town of Debaltseve.

Growing instability in Ukraine could dampen near-term support for the euro and other “riskier” assets, as investors opt for the security of safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen.

In economic data, Eurozone GDP rose faster than forecast in the fourth quarter, generating cautious optimism about the region’s nascent recovery. Eurozone GDP rose 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter and 0.9 percent annually, official data showed. The gains were spearheaded by Germany, which rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter, growing at an annual rate of 1.6 percent.

The struggling Greek economy contracted in the fourth quarter, declining 0.2 percent.

Meanwhile, US data continued to disappoint on Friday, as consumer confidence tumbled from January’s 11-year high. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dipped to 93.6 in February from 98.1 in January. A median estimate of economists called for no change.

American consumers are concerned about rising oil prices and were generally less upbeat about the labour market after hearing about layoffs in the oil and gas sector. Consumers’ appraisal of the current situation declined to 103.1 from 109.3, while the barometer of future expectations decreased to 87.5 from 91.

The greenback was generally weaker across the board on Friday. The US dollar index declined further to 94.04, falling 0.05 percent. The index is down 1 point from Wednesday’s high of 95.09.

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USD/CAD Loses NFP-Inspired Rally amid Higher Energy Prices

Market Place — Wed, 11 Feb 2015 07:00:48 +0000

The North American currency pair back was on its heels Monday, as rebounding energy prices and better than expected Canadian housing starts supported the Canadian dollar.

The USD/CAD declined more than half a percent to 1.2454. Initial support is likely found at 1.2417 and resistance at 1.2589.

The pair rebounded on Friday after the United States Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls rose by 257,000 in January, following upwardly revised gains of 429,000 and 329,000 in November and December, respectively. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 5.7 percent from 5.6 percent as more people entered the workforce, while average earnings rose at the fastest rate in six years.

The stronger than forecast report sent the US dollar surging and supported expectations the Federal Reserve could signal for higher interest rates by midyear. Speculation about a midyear rate hike had cooled in recent months amid sluggish domestic growth and global volatility.

The loonie received a boost on Monday after the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported stronger than forecast housing starts in January. Canadian housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 187,300 in January, up from 177,600 in December and compared with expectations for 177,500.

Rebounding energy prices also helped shore up the Canadian dollar. Crude prices advanced for a third day, as West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose $1.46 to $53.15 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude jumped 43 cents to $58.23 a barrel.

The USD/CAD faces further upside in the short- and medium-terms, as the market continue to price in a much lower Canadian dollar. The loonie’s prospects have been shattered over the last seven months, in part by declining commodity prices but also because of a weaker domestic economy. Canada’s gross domestic product is expected to increase just 1.5 percent in the year through June, according to the Bank of Canada’s said last month. That’s nearly 1 full percentage point below the Bank’s previous forecast.

The BOC joined a growing list of central banks to cut interest rates in January. The Bank reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent. That was the first rate adjustment since September 2010. According to analysts, the BOC could slash interest rates by another 25 basis points by midyear to cope with weak energy prices and deflationary pressures.

Canadian consumer prices declined 0.7 percent in January, as annual inflation slowed to 1.5 percent from 2 percent.

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EUR/USD Holds Ground as Political Tensions Escalate

Market Place — Tue, 10 Feb 2015 07:00:53 +0000

The euro was little changed against the US dollar on Monday, trading above 1.13 cents US ahead of the European Union meetings in Brussels. The meetings, which will be held on Wednesday, will be attended by newly appointed Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tspiras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The EUR/USD climbed 0.06 percent to 1.1326. The pair is likely supported at 1.1259. Resistance is ascending from 1.1435.

Risk-off trading was the norm on Monday, as investors digested latest comments from the newly appointment Greek Prime Minister, who on Sunday outlined plans to dismantle the Troika’s “cruel” austerity plan. Tspiras said he would not extend Greece’s €240 billion bailout plan set to expire at the end of the month, setting the stage for a political standoff with the country’s European lenders.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker fired back on Monday, telling Greece the supranational institution would not bow to its demands.

“Greece should not assume that the overall mood has so changed that the Eurozone will adopt Tspiras’ government program unconditionally,” Juncker said in Germany on Monday.

Tspiras’ far-left coalition swept to power last month on a platform of “anti-austerity,” promising voters to raise the minimum wage, cut taxes and negotiate a new bailout agreement with international creditors. The Syriza party secured 36 percent of the vote and 149 of 300 parliament seats.

Meanwhile, escalating violence in Ukraine continued to weigh on market sentiment, driving investors to safe haven assets like the Japanese yen and gold. At least 45 Ukrainian soldiers and 11 pro-Russia fighters have been killed in renewed violence in the eastern part of the country, prompting the EU to postpone Russia sanctions ahead of the Minsk summit. German Chancellor Angela Merkel arrived at the White House on Monday to meet with US President Barrack Obama around the issue of whether to arm the Ukrainian government against Russian separatists.

In economic data, Germany’s trade surplus widened more than forecast in December, capping off a record year for international trade and signaling that Europe’s largest economy was improving. Germany’s trade surplus reached €217 billion in 2014, shattering the previous record of €195.3 billion. The country posted a surplus of €21.8 billion in December, up from €18.3 billion in November and compared with the consensus forecast of €17.9 billion. Exports rose 3.4 percent, while imports declined 0.8 percent from November, official data showed. Economists forecast exports to rise only 1 percent in December.

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Canadian dollar rebounds sharply as oil prices rise

Market Place — Fri, 06 Feb 2015 07:00:18 +0000

The Canadian dollar advanced on Monday as oil prices continued to rally, while US consumer spending declined at the sharpest rate since 2009 and manufacturing activity softened.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known, rose 0.8 percent to 0.7941 US, erasing Friday’s losses. The USD/CAD exchange rate tumbled more than 100 pips to 1.2590. The pair faces initial support at 1.2510 and resistance at 1.2805.

Canada’s currency has declined for ten consecutive weeks against the US dollar, as plunging oil prices and weak fundamentals have weighed on the commodity-sensitive currency. The loonie faced renewed selling pressure two weeks ago when the Bank of Canada unexpectedly reduced its trend-setting interest rate to 0.75 percent and downgraded its economic outlook.

Rising oil prices helped lift the Canadian dollar on Monday. West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose 1.6 percent to $49.01 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude rose more than 2.3 percent to $54.23 a barrel.

In economic data, Canadian manufacturing softened in January, the Royal Bank of Canada reported today. The RBC manufacturing PMI declined from 54.9 percent to 51 percent in January, as overall business conditions improved at the weakest rate since April 2013.

US manufacturing activity cooled again in January, as new orders continued to moderate, the Institute for Supply Management reported today. ISM’s monthly gauge of US manufacturing declined from 55.5 to 53.5. New export orders declined for the first time in 26 months, as only five manufacturing sub-sectors reported growth.

In a separate report the Department of Commerce said household spending declined at the sharpest rate since September 2009, a sign consumers were pinching their pennies toward the end of the holiday season. US personal spending declined 0.3 percent in December following a 0.5 percent advance the month before. However, personal incomes increased 0.3 percent. Combined with cheaper gas prices, higher incomes translated into a 4.9 percent increase in the saving rate.

Monday’s data deluge wrapped up with construction spending, a key indicator of US housing activity. Construction spending rose 0.4 percent in December, well below estimates calling for 0.7 percent. The November rate was revised up to reflect a 0.2 percent drop instead of the 0.3 percent decline reported last month.

The US government will report on factory orders on Tuesday, followed by services PMI and employment data on Wednesday. The United States and Canada will each report on international trade on Thursday.

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USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

Market Place — Mon, 02 Feb 2015 12:31:53 +0000

The USD/CAD advanced for a tenth consecutive week last week, climbing to a nearly six-year high of 1.2794. The pair gained more than 9.5 percent in January, as the Canadian dollar continued to struggle with plunging oil prices and a shaky domestic recovery.

The USD/CAD was trading at 1.2700 in Monday’s early Asian session, as investors set their sights on a deluge of economic data from both countries. Below is a breakdown of this week’s major market movers.

Monday

On Monday the United States Department of Commerce will report on personal income and outlays for December. A slight increase in personal income is expected, although consumer spending is forecast to drop 0.2 percent in December following gains of 0.6 percent the prior month.

Separately, the Institute for Supply Management will release its monthly manufacturing PMI. US manufacturing activity is forecast to remain steady in January following a protracted slowdown in the second half of the year.

Tuesday

On Tuesday the US government will report on factory orders, which measure demand for durable and non-durable goods. According to forecasts, factory orders were unchanged in December after falling 0.7 percent the previous month.

Wednesday

ISM will release its monthly non-manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, an important gauge of US service activity. US services PMI is forecast to rise 1 percentage point to 57.2 in January.

Separately, the ADP Institute will release an advance estimate of US private sector employment growth. Last month the ADP said US private payrolls rose by 241,000 in December. Economists expect a January tally of 215,000.

Thursday

The United States and Canada will report on international trade in the latter half of the week. The US trade deficit reached an 11-month low of $39 billion in December, as oil imports fell to their lowest level in two decades. Meanwhile, Canada’s trade deficit widened in December, as oil exports fell to their lowest level since January 2012.

Friday

The most anticipated data releases of the week come Friday when both countries report on employment. According to forecasts, the US economy added 230,000 nonfarm payrolls in January after registering the strongest year of job creation since 1999. If forecasts hold, January would mark the 12^th consecutive month of above-200,000 job gains.

Canadian employment is forecast to rise 5,100 in January after contracting unexpectedly the month before. Statistics Canada last week lowered the number of jobs gained in 2014 from 185,700 to 121,300. The statistics agency also revised the unemployment rate for December from 6.6 percent to 6.7 percent.

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Euro rallies as technical trading outweighs German deflation

Market Place — Fri, 30 Jan 2015 07:00:38 +0000

The EUR/USD rallied on Thursday, as technical trading sent the pair higher amid mixed economic data from Germany.

The EUR/USD regained 1.13 and climbed to an intraday high of 1.1367. It would later consolidate at 1.1320 in the North American session, advancing 0.4 percent. Initial support is likely found at 1.1253 and resistance at 1.13355. The EUR/USD could sustain a larger rebound above the initial resistance test as the RSI climbs off oversold levels.

Technical trading supported the euro despite plunging German inflation, which highlighted even more so the downside risks facing the Eurozone economy. Germany’s consumer price index of goods and services declined more than forecast in January, plunging 0.3 percent annually.

Germany’s harmonized CPI rate, which calculates inflation using a method consistent throughout the European Union, declined 0.5 percent annually, the biggest drop in more than five years.

The European Central Bank last week joined a growing list of central banks that have eased monetary policy this month to account for deflationary risk. The ECB introduced its long-awaited quantitative easing program last Thursday, announcing it would begin buying government bonds worth €60 billion per month. The QE program, which is expected to last until at least September 2016, could inject up to €1 trillion into the Eurozone economy.

The EUR/USD plummeted to fresh 12-year lows following the news and risks further downside action as the markets brace for weaker inflation figures and diverging central bank policies between the ECB and United States Federal Reserve.

In a separate report today Germany said its unemployment rate fell in January to its lowest level in more than two decades, a sign Europe’s largest economy was gradually improving despite regional imbalances. Germany’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent in January, down from 6.6 percent a month earlier. That was the lowest level since the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990.

An improving labour market and cheaper gas prices are lifting German consumer sentiment, according to GfK. The market research firm’s monthly consumer confidence index reached 9.3 in February, a 13-year high.

“Consumers are expecting the German economy to continue developing positively over the coming months,” GfK reported on Wednesday in a press release.

It added, “Falling energy prices will play a major role in this respect. Low energy prices combined with a considerable depreciation in the euro are acting as an economic stimulus and should boost not only exports, but also companies’ willingness to invest.”

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